Your Favorite Financial Influencer Will Never Tell: – I created my financial pyramid (ponzi): my followers!Vinícius Capucho
I know it took me a while to write something on this humble site, but it always takes time to re-establish ideas and information – especially at the end of a year. Everything deserves a break, a time, to rethink and rethink the mistakes and rights we all make throughout our lives.
I always seek to interpret my entire journey with a spiritual, Christian and Catholic view of my actions. For those who have read my third book, they are able to interpret my described words well.
LET’S GETTING IT’S EARLY 2022.
I’m starting my analysis based on the January 3 data: the *&%$ of consumption has continued to fall wildly for almost two years. Even the holiday period didn’t manage to open the wallet of consumers.
So, American consumption remains absurdly stagnant while the S&P 500 (Top American Companies) index continues to sustain and hit historic highs. After all, will these same companies really have consistent profits to send such prices from their stocks?
Another index dated December 21, from the University of Michigan, already told us that consumer expectations (Light Blue Line) would be terrible compared to the Price/Profit of the S&P 500 (Dark Blue Line).
Your Favorite Financial Influencer Will Never Say: – I make more money from your views than from my investments.Vinícius Capucho
On December 18th, the caption itself already highlights: there is always a good reason not to invest in the USA stock market, at this moment.
Of course there’s a good reason not to screw up following thousands of digital influencers in the American market: DON’T STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF SHIT.
Look closely at the sheer greed based on the very companies that are bombarded with positive news on their social media. Always the same, always a reason to buy no matter the price. Social networks potentiating the stupidity and greed of the vast majority of “investors”, worldwide, cause absurd distortions in prices – before considered of extreme importance.
Don’t worry, when it comes to a complete meltdown in these markets, the first one to lose a large chunk of equity indefinitely will be the individual who most values their favorite influencers.
Your Favorite Financial Influencer Will Never Say: – as an investor, I’m a great youtuber!Vinícius Capucho
While you follow your favorite influencer, he doesn’t inform you that, depending on your investment, you will have a ridiculous (destroyed by inflation) or mostly negative return for long, long years (like it happened in 1999): depending on the *&$% of the asset you buy.
Note in the image below where we are already experiencing right now. S&P 500 overvalued by 28x.
So follows the largest financial market in the world, being pulled by endless profitable expectations with no possible recession being feared. As much as its track record has been growing over the decades, there were periods of deep recessions that destroyed investors’ wealth at certain times. Following the range determined by the light lines, one can see the historical top being reached since the last century (red arrows).
What is M2?
M2 is a money supply calculation that includes all the elements of M1 as well as “quasi-money”. M1 includes cash and demand deposits, while M2 (almost cash) refers to savings deposits, money market bonds and other time deposits.
Summarizing the image below: while the S&P 500 (Red Line) hits its highs, the M2 has remained at its lows since 2007.
Lots of money accumulated in the financial market, not much real money.
M2 is a broader measure of the money supply than M1, which only includes cash and demand deposits. M2 is closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a central bank monetary policy target.
The Federal Reserve (FED) has zeroed its funds (balance sheets), transferring them to the financial markets: preventing an immediate collapse of the markets (Red Line Variable). The markets reacted and are being supported by the Fed: at unbelievable historical highs (Black Line).
You don’t need to be a genius to understand what happened in 2008 with the same situation.
Your Favorite Financial Influencer Will Never Say:Vinícius Capucho
– I have 1 million followers: I buy some shit first and make a video. If 20% of them buy this shit that I recommend, I make the sale and get rich.
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